Athletic have a lot of quality in the final third of the field and will fancy their chances of scoring on Sunday night despite Barcelona's impressive defensive record this season. That said, it is difficult to back against the hosts considering their quality, and we are expecting Xavi's side to secure all three points.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 60.66%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 18.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.99%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.08) 
