Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.77%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 22.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Oxford United win it was 0-1 (7.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
-0.03) 
0.01) 
