SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 65.51%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Cambridge United had a probability of 14.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Cambridge United win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Cambridge United |
65.51% ( -0.58) | 19.53% ( 0.06) | 14.96% ( 0.52) |
| Both teams to score 52.98% ( 1.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.04% ( 0.85) | 40.96% ( -0.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.64% ( 0.86) | 63.35% ( -0.86) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.29% ( 0.09) | 11.71% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.17% ( 0.2) | 36.83% ( -0.19) |
| Cambridge United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60% ( 1.25) | 40% ( -1.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.35% ( 1.13) | 76.65% ( -1.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Cambridge United |
| 2-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.34) 1-0 @ 10.04% ( -0.36)2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.13)5-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.79% Total : 65.5% | 1-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.53% | 0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.81% Total : 14.96% |
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