SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Derby County |
47.08% ( 0.9) | 26.7% ( 0.06) | 26.22% ( -0.96) |
| Both teams to score 47.9% ( -0.88) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.64% ( -0.78) | 56.36% ( 0.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.62% ( -0.64) | 77.39% ( 0.64) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.05% ( 0.09) | 23.95% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.82% ( 0.12) | 58.18% ( -0.12) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.99% ( -1.23) | 37.01% ( 1.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.2% ( -1.24) | 73.8% ( 1.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 12.66% ( 0.4) 2-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.31)2-1 @ 9% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.55% Total : 47.07% | 1-1 @ 12.59% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.86% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.7% | 0-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.11)Other @ 1.77% Total : 26.22% |
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