SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 18.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.53%) and 1-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
60.72% ( 0.02) | 20.78% ( -0.17) | 18.49% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 56.47% ( 0.86) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.86% ( 1.01) | 40.14% ( -1.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.49% ( 1.03) | 62.5% ( -1.04) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.2% ( 0.32) | 12.8% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.89% ( 0.66) | 39.1% ( -0.67) |
| Forest Green Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.76% ( 0.75) | 35.24% ( -0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28% ( 0.78) | 71.99% ( -0.78) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.53% ( -0.21)1-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.32)3-1 @ 6.81% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.58% Total : 60.72% | 1-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.21)3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.18% Total : 20.78% | 1-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.74% Total : 18.49% |
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