Neither side are in great form coming into this clash, so we are expecting a closely-fought contest at Stadium MK.
Derby know that a win could take them inside the playoff places and they will rightly be favourites here, but it would be foolish to underestimate their opponents despite their league position.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.78% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
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