Portsmouth have drawn their last four home league games, and we think that they may have to settle for another point when they face a Derby side who have only lost one of their previous five away matches in League One.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.77) 
0.18) 
