Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 49.03%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for MK Dons had a probability of 24.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.4%), while for a MK Dons win it was 0-1 (8.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Port Vale in this match.
0.06) 
-0.03) 
