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League One | Gameweek 21
Dec 9, 2023 at 3pm UK
Brisbane Road
DL

Leyton Orient
0 - 3
Derby


El Mizouni (47')
Cooper (44')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Sibley (34'), Mendez-Laing (47'), Barkhuizen (79')
Hourihane (8')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Leyton Orient 1-3 Derby County

With the two sides experiencing contrasting spells of form, we think that a confident Derby side will get the better of Leyton Orient to claim their fifth consecutive league victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.49%. A win for Leyton Orient had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Leyton Orient win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Leyton OrientDrawDerby County
29.69% (0.010000000000002 0.01) 26.82% (-0.0010000000000012 -0) 43.49% (-0.012 -0.01)
Both teams to score 49.77% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.95% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)55.05% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.69% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)76.31% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Leyton Orient Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.46% (0.012999999999991 0.01)33.54% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.82% (0.015000000000001 0.02)70.18% (-0.015999999999991 -0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.88% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)25.12% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)59.82% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Score Analysis
    Leyton Orient 29.69%
    Derby County 43.48%
    Draw 26.82%
Leyton OrientDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.2%
2-1 @ 6.95% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 5.03% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 2.53% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 1.83% (0.0010000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 1.75% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 29.69%
1-1 @ 12.71%
0-0 @ 8.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 4.8% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 26.82%
0-1 @ 11.63% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.78%
0-2 @ 8.04% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 4.05% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-3 @ 3.7% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 2.21% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.4%
0-4 @ 1.28% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.39%
Total : 43.48%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Chesterfield 1-0 Leyton Orient
Sunday, December 3 at 2pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 1-1 Leyton Orient
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Leyton Orient 1-1 Wigan
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Leyton Orient 0-1 Lincoln
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Leyton Orient 2-3 Oxford Utd
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Leyton Orient 1-2 Portsmouth
Tuesday, November 7 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Derby 3-0 Fleetwood
Tuesday, December 5 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Port Vale 0-1 Derby
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 2-1 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 1-3 Crewe
Tuesday, November 14 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Derby 3-0 Barnsley
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 4-1 Wolves U21s
Wednesday, November 8 at 7pm in EFL Trophy


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