Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 42.85%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (7.62%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (8.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ipswich Town would win this match.
0.29) 
-0.38) 
