Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 47.46%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 27.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
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