Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 58.73%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 19.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Portsmouth in this match.
0.05) 
-0.05) 
