Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 24.01% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
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