Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 39.07%. A win for Lincoln City had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest Lincoln City win was 1-0 (10.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
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