The two teams will want to claim maximum points to boost their promotion hopes, but with Derby and Bolton both desperate to avoid defeat, we think that a close-fought contest could finish all square.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.67%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 26.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.
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