Derby may enter Saturday's contest off the back of consecutive defeats, but we think that they will do enough to get the better of a Port Vale side that has lost each of their last four away matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 65.06%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 14.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.45%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Port Vale win it was 0-1 (4.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
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