SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 18.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Reading |
59.58% ( -0.13) | 21.57% ( -0.02) | 18.85% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 54.4% ( 0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.81% ( 0.29) | 43.19% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.41% ( 0.29) | 65.59% ( -0.29) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.88% ( 0.05) | 14.12% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.24% ( 0.11) | 41.76% ( -0.11) |
| Reading Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.35% ( 0.34) | 36.65% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.56% ( 0.33) | 73.44% ( -0.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Reading |
| 1-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0)2-0 @ 9.92% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.26% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.24% ( -0)Other @ 2.93% Total : 59.58% | 1-1 @ 10.16% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.17% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.57% | 0-1 @ 5.19% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.57% Total : 18.85% |
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