Derby would have taken confidence from their midweek win over Port Vale, and we think that the rejuvenated Rams will continue their promotion push by claiming a second straight victory in Saturday's away meeting with Bristol Rovers.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.89%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Bristol Rovers win was 1-0 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
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