SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 49.17%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 26.89% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.39%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-2 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Reading | Draw | Exeter City |
49.17% ( 0.13) | 23.94% ( -0) | 26.89% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 57.02% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.31% ( -0.09) | 44.69% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.95% ( -0.09) | 67.05% ( 0.08) |
| Reading Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.73% ( 0.02) | 18.27% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.67% ( 0.03) | 49.33% ( -0.03) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.76% ( -0.15) | 30.23% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.6% ( -0.17) | 66.4% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Reading | Draw | Exeter City |
| 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.39% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0)Other @ 3.49% Total : 49.17% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.93% | 1-2 @ 6.72% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.61% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.08% Total : 26.89% |
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