Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 43.63%. A win for Reading had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Reading win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
-0.04) 
0.02) 
