SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 37.31%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 36.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Port Vale in this match.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Port Vale |
36.96% ( -0.05) | 25.72% ( 0.01) | 37.31% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 55.21% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.07% ( -0.07) | 48.93% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.98% ( -0.06) | 71.02% ( 0.06) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.2% ( -0.06) | 25.79% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.25% ( -0.08) | 60.74% ( 0.08) |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.4% ( -0.01) | 25.6% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.52% ( -0.01) | 60.48% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Exeter City | Draw | Port Vale |
| 1-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.06% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.74% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 2.49% Total : 36.96% | 1-1 @ 12.19% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.72% | 0-1 @ 9% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.31% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.13% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.77% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.78% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.29% 0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 2.53% Total : 37.31% |
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