Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.89%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 23.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
1.88) 
-0.23) 
