Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 43.65%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 27.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.85%) and 2-1 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.14%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Carlisle United in this match.
-0.05) 
0.02) 
