Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 39.99%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.

Result
Stevenage	Draw	Carlisle United
39.99% ( 0.54)	27.7% ( 0.16)	32.31% ( -0.7)

Both teams to score 48.18% (

-0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.46% (

-0.73)

57.54% (

0.73)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.67% (

-0.59)

78.33% (

0.59)

Stevenage Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.86% (

-0.05)

28.14% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.18% (

-0.06)

63.82% (

0.06)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.05% (

-0.86)

32.95% (

0.86)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.47% (

-0.97)

69.53% (

0.97)

Score Analysis

Stevenage 39.98%

Carlisle United 32.31%

Draw 27.7%

Stevenage	Draw	Carlisle United
1-0 @ 11.75% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 3.5% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.11% 4-0 @ 1% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.8% Total : 39.98%	1-1 @ 13.05% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.27% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.7%	0-1 @ 10.29% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.56% Total : 32.31%