Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 41.89%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
-0.03) 
0.06) 
