Saturday's showdown looks destined to be a closely-fought battle between two evenly-matched teams, so we can see Forest Green and Crewe playing out a low-scoring draw at the New Lawn.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 43.18%. A win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 30.74% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (7.62%). The likeliest Forest Green Rovers win was 1-0 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crewe Alexandra would win this match.
-0.09) 
0.14) 
