Considering MK Dons' stellar record on home turf this season, it is hard to imagine the Dons failing to stage some level of comeback this weekend.
That being said, Crawley have put themselves in an excellent position to advance into the Wembley final, and we reckon that the Red Devils will narrowly get over the line in Buckinghamshire.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 48.61%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.66%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-2 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
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