Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 41.64%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 34.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.89%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
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