Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 44.38%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 32.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.16%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.02) 
