Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Salford City had a probability of 31.06% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Salford City win was 0-1 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.02) 
