Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 39.17%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 32.52% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.03) 
