Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 56.15%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 19.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.81%) and 1-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 1-0 (6.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.05) 
