Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 44.9%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 26.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.99%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.99%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 0-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
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