Carlisle have struggled on the road this term, losing eight of their 13 away league games, while Salford have lost only three matches at the Peninsula Stadium in League Two this season.
Although the Ammies have been inconsistent in recent weeks, we think that they will utilise home advantage to edge out the Cumbrians on Tuesday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salford City win with a probability of 46.02%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 27.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salford City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Salford City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Salford City.
