SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 52.23%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 25.83% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.36%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Swindon Town |
52.23% ( 0.01) | 21.95% ( -0.02) | 25.83% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 63% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.66% ( 0.11) | 36.35% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.53% ( 0.13) | 58.48% ( -0.12) |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.87% ( 0.04) | 14.13% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.23% ( 0.08) | 41.78% ( -0.08) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.37% ( 0.07) | 26.64% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.13% ( 0.09) | 61.87% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.36% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.22% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.11% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.3% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.54% Total : 52.23% | 1-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.95% | 1-2 @ 6.44% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.29% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.84% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.45% 1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.18% Total : 25.83% |
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