Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 42.29%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 30.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
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