Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.04%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 34.28% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (10.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
