SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 44.46%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.11%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 2-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Swindon Town |
30.85% ( 0.32) | 24.69% ( -0) | 44.46% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 57.17% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.29% ( 0.15) | 45.71% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.97% ( 0.14) | 68.03% ( -0.14) |
| Accrington Stanley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.03% ( 0.28) | 27.97% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.4% ( 0.36) | 63.6% ( -0.36) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.36% ( -0.08) | 20.64% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.79% ( -0.13) | 53.21% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 7.39% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.69% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.14% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.48% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.99% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.81% Total : 30.85% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.69% | 1-2 @ 9.16% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 7.19% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 4.82% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.78% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.07% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.9% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0)Other @ 2.75% Total : 44.46% |
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