Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 42.54%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.06) 
