SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 40.61%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 36.79% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.8%) and 2-0 (5.07%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Barcelona |
40.61% ( -0.1) | 22.59% ( 0.05) | 36.79% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 66.86% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.15% ( -0.25) | 33.84% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.3% ( -0.28) | 55.69% ( 0.28) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.61% ( -0.15) | 17.39% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.19% ( -0.26) | 47.8% ( 0.25) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.93% ( -0.09) | 19.07% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.33% ( -0.15) | 50.66% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Barcelona |
| 2-1 @ 8.41% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.96% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.21% Total : 40.61% | 1-1 @ 9.61% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.97% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.46% Total : 22.59% | 1-2 @ 7.96% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 4.55% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 4.4% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.82% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.04% ( 0)3-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.63% Total : 36.79% |
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