This is a much bigger match for Real Valladolid than it is for Barcelona, as the home side are battling for their lives towards the bottom of the division. Xavi's side will be determined to bounce back from their loss to Real Sociedad, though, and we can see a narrow away success in this game.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 63.29%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 15.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.93%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.83%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 1-0 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
-0.3) 
0.31) 
