Celta need to win to guarantee their survival, but we are finding it very difficult to back the hosts with any real confidence. Barcelona are under no pressure, but the Catalan outfit have such quality across the field, and we are expecting the champions to end their campaign with a win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 49.43%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 26.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.55%) and 0-2 (8.32%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 1-0 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
0.37) 
-0.16) 
