Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 37.85%. A win for AVS had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.98%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest AVS win was 1-0 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
0.01) 
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