SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vizela | Draw | Arouca |
41.75% ( 0.34) | 27.1% ( 0.02) | 31.15% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 49.6% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.43% ( -0.19) | 55.57% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.26% ( -0.16) | 76.74% ( 0.16) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.75% ( 0.09) | 26.25% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.64% ( 0.13) | 61.36% ( -0.13) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.26% ( -0.36) | 32.74% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.7% ( -0.4) | 69.3% ( 0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vizela | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.69% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 3.83% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.17% Total : 41.74% | 1-1 @ 12.83% 0-0 @ 8.6% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.09% | 0-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.17% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 5.36% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.59% Total : 31.15% |
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