Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 40.78%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
0.16) 
-0.11) 
