SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 39.4%. A win for Fenerbahce had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Fenerbahce win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fenerbahce |
39.4% ( -0.07) | 25.81% ( -0) | 34.78% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 54.69% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.49% ( 0.02) | 49.5% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.46% ( 0.02) | 71.53% ( -0.02) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.27% ( -0.02) | 24.73% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.72% ( -0.04) | 59.28% ( 0.04) |
| Fenerbahce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.66% ( 0.06) | 27.33% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.21% ( 0.07) | 62.78% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fenerbahce |
| 1-0 @ 9.44% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.56% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.6% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.59% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.9% ( -0)Other @ 1.79% Total : 39.4% | 1-1 @ 12.24% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.55% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.8% | 0-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.94% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.44% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.98% Total : 34.78% |
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