SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 57.56%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 21.44% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.22%) and 1-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 1-2 (5.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Elfsborg |
57.56% ( 0.06) | 21% ( -0.02) | 21.44% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 60.81% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.23% ( 0.03) | 36.77% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.07% ( 0.04) | 58.94% ( -0.03) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.36% ( 0.03) | 12.64% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.21% ( 0.06) | 38.79% ( -0.05) |
| Elfsborg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.61% ( -0.02) | 30.39% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.42% ( -0.02) | 66.59% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Elfsborg |
| 2-1 @ 9.79% 2-0 @ 8.22% ( 0)1-0 @ 7.95% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 4.02% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.49% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.93% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.08% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 4.04% Total : 57.56% | 1-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.84% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.6% Other @ 0.27% Total : 21% | 1-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.58% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 2.87% Total : 21.44% |
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