Possessing a 100% record from home matches in the 2024 Brasileiro, Bahia should be supremely confident of getting back to winning ways on Sunday evening.
Despite their positive start to the campaign, Cruzeiro have been unreliable on the road - failing to score in their last two away matches - and we feel that Raposa will endure more troubles on their travels this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 48.03%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 24.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.68%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.68%), while for a Cruzeiro win it was 0-1 (9.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
0.27) 
-0.09) 
