Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 49.01%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 25.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
