SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 74.3%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for St Pauli had a probability of 10.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 3-0 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.89%), while for a St Pauli win it was 1-2 (3.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Bayer Leverkusen in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Bayer Leverkusen.
| Result | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | St Pauli |
74.3% ( 1.35) | 15.18% ( -0.53) | 10.53% ( -0.81) |
| Both teams to score 55.46% ( -0.98) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.87% ( 0.21) | 31.13% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.46% ( 0.25) | 52.54% ( -0.24) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.89% ( 0.32) | 7.11% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 74.09% ( 0.83) | 25.91% ( -0.82) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.7% ( -1.26) | 40.3% ( 1.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 23.08% ( -1.17) | 76.93% ( 1.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-0 @ 10.01% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 8.82% ( 0.33)3-1 @ 8.02% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 7.58% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.31)4-1 @ 5.3% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.11)5-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.21)5-1 @ 2.8% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.04)6-0 @ 1.36% ( 0.11)5-2 @ 1.27% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.84% Total : 74.3% | 1-1 @ 6.89% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 4.14% ( -0.2)0-0 @ 2.87% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.18% Total : 15.18% | 1-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.21) 0-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.41% Total : 10.53% |
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